Decarbonising aviation

Flying horses

Acid rain, the ozone layer and manure

in 1894, The Times newspaper predicted… “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.”

9 feet is 2.7 m, 1 m taller than the average height of a man at that time.

Of course, horse drawn carriages were soon replaced with the car. The great horse manure crisis never occurred.

It is currently predicted that the aviation industry will contribute 22% of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

This too may be averted.

From gasoline to Grassoline 

Currently, aircraft are powered by fossil fuels. The sustainable aviation fuel it’s almost negligible at 0.53%.

Forward thinkingairline wizz

announces a £5 million investment in a biofuel company, Firefly. This is Wizz Air’s first equity investment in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research and development. The partnership with Firefly will allow the airline to supply SAF to its UK operations from 2028, up to 525,000 tonnes over 15 years. The agreement has the potential to save 1.5 million tonnes of CO2-eq

There are other options too for lower carbon aviation, including  hydrogen and electric propulsion.

While promising advances are being made in development of both hydrogen and electric propulsion technologies neither already for large scale or long distant flight in the immediate future . And both would require changes to aircraft and fueling infrastructure . 

new regulations require a move to low carbon feels sooner than these technologies will be ready. 

SAF is technology-ready and can be used in the current aircraft, and fuelling infrastructure

This negates additional costs and the further embodied carbon of new aircraft assets or equipment. so keeping whole life carbon to a minimum and keeping costs affordable. The ramp up of mandated sustainable aviation fuel target allows for more affordable and sustainable adoption by the aviation industry and for costs to reduce as technology efficiencies and availability increases.

From air to air

All fuels are hydrocarbon. That hydrocarbon can be derived from plant material, from fossil fuels or from combining hydrogen and carbon.

Much more SAF and synthetic AF

Regulation within the EU mandates the adoption of SAF commencing with 2% in 2025. Binding SAF targets increase to 5% in 2030. And to meet 90% reduction total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions sustainable aviation fuels will need to have replaced fossil fuels by 63% by 2050.

EU mandate harmonises obligations on fuel suppliers and airlines to scale up the uptake of SAF. Every flight leaving EU airports will carry a minimum amount of SAF

Well, feedstocks of used cooking around animal facts used for sustainable aviation fuels from many refineries are limited. They may be supplemented by synthetic aviation fields from biomass or synthetic aviation fails through the combination of renewable energy derived hydrogen and carbon.

Sub targets for synthetic aviation fuels starting 2030th at 0.7%. These sub mandate targets increase to 5% by 2035 and 35% by 2050.

Graph here

Synthetic fuels are typically made using power to liquid technology. The feed stock for these fuels are renewable sources other than biomass. Instead, the hydrocarbon is made from hydrogen derive from water that has been split using renewable electricity and carbon derived from carbon dioxide. The co2 can be captured directly from the air oh from industrial processes. A reliable and well understood process known as official chops is used combined the carbon and hydrogen into the hydrocarbon that is further processed for fuel.

SAF categories

The regulation considers these SAF categories

1. bio fuels which are made from feedstocks listed in part a of annex ix EU 2018/2021

2. Used Cooking oil and animal fat feed stocks in part B of annex ix

3. Synthetic aviation fuels, typically made via power to liquid technology

These also need to comply with the sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions criteriaOf the Annex

Power of liquid fuels are made up from renewable sources other than biomass for example renewable energy sources such as wind or solar are used to split hydrogen for water carbon carbon monoxide is derived from carbon dioxide which can be taken from air or captured from industrial processes

The hydrogen and the carbon combined into hydrocarbon in the fisher chops process

This hydrocarbon is further processed into fuel

 LIST HERE ITEMS FROM AN XA

1. Different types of grasses

Grassoline

2. Frequent fryer cooking fats

3.

in 1894, The Times newspaper predicted… “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.”

that is 2.7 m, 1 m taller than the average height of a man at that time.

This became known as the ‘Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894’.

Of course, horse drawn carriages were soon replaced with the car. The great horse manure crisis never occurred.

It is currently predicted that the aviation industry will contribute 22% of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Quantity is not the only factor by which Aviations greenhouse gas mission impact should be measured as we take into account refractive force formation of contrails.

This too may be averted.

Wizz airlines to take 525000 of saf from sewage

The Solution: Innovation, Not despair Desperation:

But fear not, dear reader, for history has a knack for throwing unexpected curveballs. Enter innovation, the hero of our story. Henry Ford, with his affordable motor cars, revolutionized transportation. Electric trams and motor buses replaced horse-drawn counterparts, and by 1912, the seemingly insurmountable Manure Crisis had been averted. Horses were out, motorized vehicles were in, and urban civilization was saved from being buried under a mountain of manure.

Lessons in Innovation:

So, what can we learn from the Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894? Two key takeaways emerge:

1. Human Ingenuity: Left to their own devices, people tend to find solutions to seemingly insurmountable problems. However, these solutions often emerge when economic institutions, like property rights and free exchange, create the right incentives and freedom for innovation.

2. The Uncertainty of Predictions: History shows us that predicting the future is a tricky business. Just as the Manure Crisis didn't bury London's streets, other forecasts may fall flat as well. Diversify your investments, spread your bets, and be prepared for the unexpected, because in the world of manure and finance, anything can happen.

So, the next time you find yourself in the midst of a seemingly insurmountable problem, remember the Great Horse Manure Crisis. It's a testament to human resilience, innovation, and our ability to triumph over even the most absurd of challenges. And who knows, the solution might be just around the corner, waiting to be discovered amidst the heaps of manure or the complexities of modern life.